Racing Tips; Andrew Mount’s Monday Picks – December 27th – originally posted on Sportslens.com
Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew stats machine has been working overtime to find more angles for Bank Holiday Monday.
Andrew found winners at 11-2 and 6-4 on Boxing Day as well as an 18-1 third and he has four more selections for Monday December 27th. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the upcoming and hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
TOP AND DROP (systems – Venetia Williams handicap chasers in December & mares age/weight rank system)
Simply backing all Venetia Williams-trained handicap chasers in December shows a small profit and TOP AND DROP also qualifies on another system – siding with older mares (8yo+) in handicap chases who were not carrying top weight. This angle has thrown up 73 winners from 4231 bets since the beginning of 2016 (17.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £34.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s only 8.1% on turnover but taking the best early price the evening before racing would have boosted this to +£180.34 (+42.8%).
CUT THE MUSTARD (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, unplaced last time out)
Paul Nicholls has used first-time cheekpieces to good effect – Clan Des Obeaux demolished a Grade 1 field at Aintree in this headgear last spring – though we wouldn’t have made a profit by backing them blind in recent years. The key is to look for those who disappointed last time, finishing fourth or worse. Had we followed this angle since the beginning of 2010, we’d have won 27 of our 114 bets (23.7%) and made a profit of £39.51 to a £1 level stake at SP. CUT THE MUSTARD, as big as 25-1 at the time of writing, is the latest qualifier and could outrun her odds.
YOU SOME BOY (system – last-time out winners, 3m+ handicap hurdles, top speed)
Last-time-out winners have a good record when bidding to follow up in handicap hurdles over 3m+ if they go into the race with the best last-time-out Proform speed figure. Since the beginning of 2011, they’ve won 160 of their 625 starts (25.6%) for a profit of £67.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. YOU SOME BOY was 22-1 when scoring in a fast time over 2m4f at Newcastle on his latest outing and looks sure to appreciate today’s stiffer test of stamina.
NURSECLAIRE (system – Alice Haynes stable switchers)
Up-and-coming trainer Alice Haynes has featured in this column previously as one to side with when she runs a horse in a handicap for the first time and she also does well at the first time of asking with horses she takes over from other yards. Backing them all would have returned a profit of £10.00 to a £1 level stake and she’s also hit the crossbar with runners-up at 28-1, 20-1, 9-2 and 9-2. NURSECLAIRE makes her all-weather debut after leaving Richard Fahey’s yard and looks set to go close at least.
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